Is there any one who isn’t betting the big game? It’d be very silly not to. However massive matchups like the Super Bowl breed silliness, especially when it comes to sports bettors. It doesn’t matter if you’re a first-time gambler or a seasoned sharp, the Super Bowl can make even the most disciplined bettor lose their mind.
There’s a little over a week before the Atlanta Falcons and New England Patriots showdown in Houston on Feb. 5. That’s more than enough time to completely tank your Super Bowl bets. Here are some mistakes Super Bowl bettors need to avoid.
Betting too early/too late
If you’ve been paying attention to the early line moves for Super Bowl LI, you’ve seen the Patriots go off at anything from minus-2.5 to minus-4 after beating Pittsburgh in the AFC title game.
If you’re a Patriots backer and you didn’t get down on that small spread, which was offered before the AFC Championship Game was over, you might have missed your chance. Maybe you jumped the gun and took Atlanta plus-2.5 and watched free points pass you by.
First, let those odds go because they’re gone. Second, breathe. Third, realize there are two weeks of wagering to be had and 97 percent of the money doesn’t come in until the 48 hours before game time.
That means movement is coming. Fourth, get an opinion and plan of attack. Know what you realistically want for a line and how much you want to pay for it.
In the past two Super Bowls, there has been some very aggressive line movement. So hold tight, you might get what you want. That said, don’t let a solid number pass you by.
Waiting out a line move that might never come could have you scrambling on Super Sunday and playing an over juiced number or grabbing a spread you’re not crazy about.
The best plan of attack for wagering on Super Bowl props is to start with the spread and total, and then work backward. Figure out how the game will play out. If you have Atlanta to cover, then who and what will get it there.
If you like the under, make sure your prop plays coincide with those wagers. That means taking the under in passing props, leaning toward the over in rushing props and having a few more “No” than “Yes” bets.
The worst thing you can do is have props that go against each other in the Super Bowl.
If you think Matt Ryan continues the hot hand and lights the Patriots up for massive gains, then don’t load up on the over in the Falcons’ rushing yard props.
Believe New England will slow the pace and eat up time of possession with a run-heavy playbook? You might want to shy away from Julian Edleman’s over on total receptions prop and instead think over for how many carries LeGarrette Blount and Dion Lewis will have.
There’s no bigger show than the Super Bowl. Betting the big game is entertainment. Enjoy the game. Sign up now at Heritagesports.eu