The Louisville Cardinals opened as 27.5-point favorites as they host the ACC conference rival Duke Blue Devils tomorrow night and they will be aiming to return to the hunt for a berth in the College Football Playoff.
The Cardinals used last week’s bye to recover from a 42-36 loss as one-point road chalk to the Clemson Tigers, cooling off an impressive 4-0 start both straight up and against the spread that briefly lifted them to No. 3 in the AP Top 25.
Duke has endured a roller-coaster season but improved to 3-3 SU with a 13-6 win over Army last week, and it is a respectable 4-4 SU in its past eight games against nationally ranked opponents.
With an extra week off to prepare, the question is not so much whether Louisville will walk away with a SU win, but by how much. The Cardinals are on a 3-0 ATS run as double-digit chalk, and they are 4-1 ATS in their past five games when favored by 30 or more points.
Duke posted a stunning 38-35 win over Notre Dame in its last outing as double-digit underdogs, but it faces a much tougher adversary in this angry Cardinals squad. Look for Louisville to run up the score but struggle to cover in a rout of the Blue Devils this week.
Duke is 1-5 ATS in its last six games against teams with winning records.
The total has gone UNDER in seven of Duke’s last nine games in October.
Louisville is 15-4 ATS in its last 19 games after a loss.
Heisman front-runner Lamar Jackson racked up 457 total yards and three total touchdowns against Clemson, but fell just short of a go-ahead score in the closing moments of the game. The effort brought Jackson’s unbelievable season totals to 1,625 passing yards, 688 rushing yards and 25 total touchdowns through just five games.
Since 2013, Duke has enjoyed success in the month of October with a 9-2 SU and 8-3 ATS record in 11 games. The Blue Devils haven’t historically fared well in games as a big underdog, going just 4-13 ATS and 0-17 SU in their last 17 games as an underdog of three touchdowns or more.
The Louisville Cardinals are 4-1 so far on the season, and 4-1 ATS vs. the point spread. The Duke Blue Devils, meanwhile, are 3-3 and 3-3 ATS. Those over under betting have seen Louisville go 5-0 and the Duke Blue Devils go 1-5 on the totals.
Offensively, the game matches up the Louisville Cardinals No. 1-ranked offense (58 PPG) against a Duke Blue Devils defense that ranks No. 35 at 21.5 PPG. The Louisville Cardinals passing attack has averaged 350 yards per game, more than the Duke Blue Devils give up through the air (218.33 YPG on average).
In comparing defenses, the Duke Blue Devils own the league’s No. 26-rated front 7 in terms of stopping the run, allowing 119.5 yards per game when on the road. Louisville, on the other hand, rates No. 11 this week in generating rushing yards at home.
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