If you’re new to gambling, or want to improve your skills to win more – and are willing to learn more about how to bet on football – the first thing to understand after learning about the different types of bets is learning to differentiate when to acknowledge the point spread as a valid indicator of the outcome.
It’s a common belief that sportsbooks define spreads after doing research and determining the probabilities that one team has of winning over the other; however, this isn’t entirely true. In reality, sportsbooks define spreads based on expectations, and these shift because of bets made by players, which usually reflect the expectations the public has regarding a certain outcome. This is done because sportsbooks are not interested in earning money by making players lose – even if they profit from this on certain occasions. Their business consists in attracting as many players as possible while keeping a balance between both sides of the bet, while earning profits from the juice (the cut charged as presented on the moneyline -110).
This means you can’t trust a spread to reflect the probability that a certain outcome will take place when betting on football or any other sport, but what others expect will happen. It’s because of this that in most cases the spread reflects a certain degree of accuracy, but in other moments it doesn’t.
You also need to take into account shifts created because bets are becoming one-sided, which can happen due to several reasons, including tactics that high-rollers employ to gain an edge on the house and profit from an otherwise unprofitable event.
Knowing this, it’s time you start taking into account statistics and probability analysis more seriously before placing a bet. Also, depending on the sport, you need to take individual skills and performance into account – this also applies when betting on football. This will allow you to know if the spread you see actually reflects an opportunity, and if any movements that take place are beneficial or not for you.
If this has been helpful, you might want to read our post on how to bet on football like a pro.