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Betting Underdogs

It is well known in the gambling industry that bettors prefer betting favorites to betting underdogs. People feel more comfortable investing in the superior team.

Statically it is more likely to win betting on underdogs than favorites, as long as you have access to first quarter and first half betting options, it’s possible to get creative with your underdog gradings in a way that exploits the edges you find in the stats or in situational analysis. It’s silly to not bet underdogs out of fear. The market tends to charge a premium on favorites because of public betting tendencies. You need to find a way to pocket that premium.

The two most obvious options are:

Bet your underdogs only in first quarters and first halves or bet your underdogs a chain sequence that includes first quarter/first half/full game.

If you only bet 1Q and 1H, you swept and cashed before the late collapse happened. If you bet all three options you went 2-1 and earned a profit instead of taking a loss.

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In the same order as above, assuming a standard one unit per full game bet:

Half a unit on the first quarter, half a unit on the first half…or a third of a unit each on the first quarter, first half, and full game.

Same exposure, but a way to turn results in your favor if you have a knack for finding competitive underdogs who are in good shape to play well deep into a game, but not a sure to manage that for the full 60 minutes. Pick whichever approach you’re most comfortable with depending on how confident you are about the 60-minute potential of the dog.

This strategy doesn’t necessarily apply to all underdogs. For example, let’s say that you think that a big favorite is simply overpriced…and you believe they’re vulnerable to a backdoor point spread loss when the backups are on the field in the fourth quarter. Based on your handicapping, this isn’t a case where a fired up dog is likely to play great much of the way. It’s a case where a garbage time dog might sneak in if they weren’t positioned to cover initially.

Let’s say an ugly dog is +38 against a ranked power that has a bad bench. You think the market price should be more like +34, and you think there are good backdoor possibilities in garbage time. In that case, just stick with the dog for the full game without considering the smaller increments. You may trail 21-3 after a quarter, and 38-10 at halftime, but still cash the full-game ticket in a 52-24 garbage-time finish. Bet in a way that matches your read of the game.

Generally speaking, most college football bettors play too many favorites…and they limit their money-making options by “keeping things simple” using only full-game bets. You can still bet and win with your best favorite choices. But, you’ll be adding in supplemental profit with a more logical way to invest in potentially live underdogs. Sign up now at HeritageSports.eu

Categories: Sports