What makes sports betting different than other gambling activities is that sports are played by humans and humans, like you and me, like to win. Sports betting systems can help you find teams that are extra motivated to win!
Quite often in baseball betting you’ll find that home teams are significant favorites over road teams. Unlike football, where home field advantage is assigned at anywhere from 2 ½- through 3 ½-points, coming up with a legitimate home field advantage in baseball is tough, and it isn’t something that is easily discernible.
The easiest way to go about this task is to try to figure out what a team does at home in relation to what it does on the road every single season.
History will tell you that the winning percentages for home teams were actually low in 2011 and 2012 and a bit high in 2010. According to Baseball Reference, there hasn’t been a single season since 1920 in which the road team has won more games than the home team, and the home team winning percentage ranges anywhere from 51.0% up to 58.2% depending upon the season.
If you were to carry back the data of the home team’s winning percentage to 2006, you would see that home teams have gone 9261-7747, or a winning percentage of 54.45%. Going back even more to 2000 that winning percentage is 54.48%, and the home team winning percentage dating back to 1980 was 54.57%. The numbers are remarkably consistent.
Your first task should be to figure out how often Team A is going to beat Team B.
Example: Say that theoretically, you handicap the New York Yankees to be able to beat the Seattle Mariners 62% of the time on a neutral field. That means that right off the bat, the Bronx Bombers should be -163 to win the game. Consequently, Seattle should be +163 in that situation.
Everything basically has to be multiplied by the value of home field advantage to come up with a betting line. If home teams win 54.45% of the time, road teams win 45.55% of the time, and games played on a neutral field are legitimately 50/50 tossups, the difference is 4.45%. This is the fair home field advantage factor.
Let’s go back to the example of the Mariners and the Yankees. If the Yankees are playing at home, that means that I need to multiply the 62% winning percentage by the home field advantage factor (4.45%).
0.62 (Yankees Winning Percentage) X (1 + 0.0445) (Home Field Advantage Factor) = 0.6476 winning percentage
Our Implied Probability of the Yankees winning in this scenario is 64.79%, which would translate to a -184 betting line. Anything better than -184, and you have the advantage on your side by betting the Yankees. Anything worse than -184, and you should stay away.
Consequently, when you’re calculating the disadvantage of playing on the road, you just have to subtract the home field advantage factor instead of adding it.
0.62 (Yankees Winning Percentage) X (1 – 0.0445) (Home Field Advantage Factor) = 0.5924 winning percentage
New York should be a -145 favorite on the road against the Mariners if they have a 62% chance of winning the game on a neutral field.