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NCAA Week 3 Is On

Another week has concluded, analyze what happened on week 2 and use that information on your week 3 NCAAF picks

Here are some of the most relevant facts of week 2.

The conference’s top three preseason teams each have a loss: Oklahoma, TCU and Oklahoma State. The lack of a conference championship game already places the Big 12 as the odd-man out when it comes to the committee’s selection process, particularly with its partiality to groupings rather than individual teams when selecting the final four entries. The committee weighs results to common opponents heavily, and there are a few “high-profile” nonconference games left on the Big 12 schedule, but whoever comes out on top will need dominoes to fall favorably from here on out.

The Buckeyes offense struggled out of the gates last season. Cardale Jones and J.T. Barrett flipped time at quarterback, and the unit failed to find much rhythm. It averaged 10.9 points below market projections through its first five games in 2015. The offense is full throttle this year. It’s put up 125 points through the first two games, and averaged 40-plus points in its last four played. The scoring explosion allows Ohio State to top all FBS teams with a 27.8 average margin covering the spread. The rest of the top five include: Army (19), Toledo (18.3), East Carolina (17.8) and Louisville (17.3).

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Georgia’s near loss to Nicholls State (26-24) as 53-point chalk places it in the bottom tier of ATS margin (-22.5) through the first two weeks. The Bulldogs haven’t loss to a FCS side in 76 years, and the near upset makes them 3-11 ATS in its last 14 games when gifting more than 20 points.

Auburn suffered a similar fate last season when it needed overtime to topple Jacksonville State 27-20 as a 47.5-point favorite in Week 2. The Tigers entered the season ranked No. 6 in the preseason AP Top 25 Poll, and went on to have a forgettable year. It was overvalued by the betting market all season, going 3-10 ATS in 2015. Will Georgia suffer a similar fate?

San Jose State (-30), Bowling Green (-27.8), Arkansas State (-21.3), and Iowa State (-19) round out the worst ATS teams with two games under its belts to start the year.

TCU owns the top spot, soaring over the total in its first two games by a combined 62 points. This is in large part to its 41-38 overtime defeat to the Razorbacks on Saturday. TCU quarterback Kenny Hill rallied the Horned Frogs with three fourth-quarter touchdowns, but 6-foot-10 Arkansas LT Dan Skipper blocked a 28-yard field goal with 16 seconds left remaining to send the game into extra time. TCU then faltered.

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Categories: Sports