In the busiest sports betting season football over/under is one of the simplest type of football bets you can make. A sportsbook takes a particular game and predicts what the total score of both teams will be. Then you, as a bettor, can now bet whether that score will be over or under the predicted number. As simple as it looks there are always tips and strategies that can be followed to translate your betting into a profitable wagering system.
A good sports bettor will include some analysis and research into the strategy,
For instance some of the most common scores in the last 10 years in the NFL are 37 and 41. In a game where the total is 37, you will likely see a score of 20-17 or 27-10. In a game where the total is 41, you will likely see a score of 21-20. Of course, total scores could differ considerably from 37 and 41. Compared to baseball and soccer, football has a lot more points scored in a game and the totals could differ considerably. Thus, you can see a total score as high as 55 or as low as 24, although those totals are not very common.
Generally speaking in football betting, totals are one the easiest markets to beat. This is because much like football prop wagers a lot additional factors are involved. You see almost every handicapper starts with a simple system that “uses points” for and “points allowed” weighed against league averages for both teams to come up with a number and then starts making adjustments. The adjustments are however heavily researched and also subjective. For example if you’re seeing the Patriots should beat the Rams by 13.5 points this might be a game where the total needs be inflated, if you also notices the Patriots rarely let up once having a lead, and tend to play a lot of prevent defense at the end of the game.
Other adjustments that can be made relate to weather; an important factor is wind. Strong wind can make it harder for players to run and score touchdowns. It will not make a job of defenders much harder though as they typically do not have to run as much, but it will for the quarterback’s throw If anything. Thus, strong winds might help to lower the total scores of the teams. On the other hand, snow and rain will not affect the score as much. It might slow down offensive players, but it will also affect defensive players. Both types of players can slip and make mistakes in those weather conditions. Thus, it will not be as predictable when it comes to rain and snow.
A lot of amateur bettors tend to bet on the ‘over’. They typically expect and hope for an interesting game with a lot of points. As a result, even though betting markets are efficient, you’ll find US friendly recreational sportsbooks shading the line such a way that the under becomes the much better bet. Finally, perhaps the best way to profit from totals is to use them in correlated parlays.