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Beginner bettors, let’s us first explain that teasers are one of the many different ways to bet football. These are parlay bets that use alternative point spreads. In a teaser the point spread moves in your favor resulting in a lesser payout, in a pleaser the point spread moves in the bookmakers favor resulting in a higher payout.
For anyone ready to learn, let’s dive into advanced teaser betting which is one the best ways to profit betting NFL football.
A teaser bet uses modified point spreads. For example: a 2-team 6-point teaser on Giants -8.5 -110 and Patriots +4.5 -110 gives you Giants -2.5 and Patriots +10.5 as a parlay. The odds for 6-point teasers vary between bookies. To give an idea: 2-team 6-point teasers are generally offered at -110, 3-team 6-point teaser at +150 to +180 and 4-team 6-point teaser at +250 to +300. You’ll notice these pay less than standard parlays; this is because you have the added benefit of 6-points in your favor.
Understanding the Odds
The first thing to understand about teasers is exactly what it is you are betting. Did you know a 2-team 6-point teaser at -110 is a parlay where each team is priced -262? Did you know a 3-team teaser at +180 is a parlay where each team is priced -244? Let’s show an example using simple math.
When betting at -110 we’re risking $1.10 to win $1.00, this means a successful bet returns $2.10 ($1.10 stake + $1.00 win). To calculate how often we need to win to break even, even when we use the formula risk/return = implied probability.
So here the math: 1.10/2.10=0.5238 (52.38%)
This tells us in a -110 teaser both teams need to cover 52.38% of the time for us to break even. To see how often each team individually must win all we need to do is calculate the square root of 0.5238.
Doing the math on a 3-team 6-point teaser +180: we start with $1.00 risked returns $2.80 ($1.00 stake + $1.80 win). So to calculate how often all three teams must win we take 1.00/2.80= 0.3571 (35.71%). This time we’re going to take the cubed root (3rd root) of 0.3571 because we’re dealing with 3 teams.
How to Beat Teasers
If you’re using 3-team 6-point +180 teasers you simply need to find a situation where teasing a point spread six points increases that teams expected win rate by 20.95%. Why? Because point spreads are a 50/50 proposition, and we’ve already determined in order to break even on 3-teams +180 teaser we need each team to win 70.95% of the time. 70.95%-50.00%=20.95%, so if a point spread is 20.95% more likely to cover when moved 6-points it is a +EV bet, if less than 20.95% it is a –EV wager and should be avoided. If we’re doing 2-team 6-point -110 teasers we need to increase the win rate by 72.37%-50.00%=23.37%. Hopefully this all makes sense!
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