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Sports Betting Math

Sports Betting Math

Some mistakenly believe that mathematics and statistics are insignificant in sports betting. The truth is that just like in casino games, the effectiveness of a sports betting system to generate profits depends strictly on mathematics.

All gambling is mathematics, even games of chance. If you understand the math behind the game, you understand the game and can give yourself an advantage.

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Depending on your favorite sport, you may need to think about things like bye weeks, underdogs, quarterback ratings, and injuries with the same fervor other connoisseurs reserve for fancy winces.

If you see the wagering board, you might think what are those funny numbers on it. It looks like this:

428 Cowboys +175
429 Redskins -4 -200 38

Some of this is easy enough to read. The Redskins -4 means the Redskins are favored to win and must do so by at least 5 points for a bet on the ‘Skins to pay out. The next number (-200) is the moneyline, in this case the Redskins are a 2/1 favorite. The last number (38) is the total, the over/under of the expected number of points scored in the game.

Look at that over/under number. If you think this is going to be a particularly high or low scoring game, based on your knowledge of the teams, or information about a hurt player or bad playing conditions, you can place a wager on the total of points scored.

So how do you know how to literally lay down a sports bet? You need to know three things:

  • The type of bet you want to make
  • The number of the corresponding team you have chosen and
  • The amount you wish to wager

Knowing all that beforehand gives the ticket writer the details you need to write the ticket without having to bend over backwards to process your bet.

If you place two $100 bets, and you win, you’ll collect $440. You should consider leaving a tip around five percent of your winnings.

Going back to the topic of mathematics in betting, coming out a winner in sports betting depends on a very simple equation.

Y= X*Z, where X is the average odds of betting and Z is the success rate of predictions. If the product (Y) is greater than 1, you will be a winner in sports betting in the long run. Otherwise, the smaller than 1 the quicker you lose your capital.

In the example above, we saw that X equals to 2.00 and Z to 0.45 (45 percent).  Thus, in order Y to become larger than 1, either X or Z should increase. This means we should choose higher odds than 2.00 or increase the success rate of our forecasts.

So there are two solutions:

  • to stick to the same method of picking our bets looking, however, forbetter odds; or
  • to improve our betting system’swinning probability.

In the first case, odds comparison is crucial, while in the latter we should work on the parameters and variables of our system.

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Categories: Live Betting, Sports