There are many ways to bet on football including point spreads, moneylines, totals, first half betting, betting by the quarter, teasers, pleasers, and a whole lot of propositions. It would be pretty boring if moneyline and point spreads were the only options.
Some bettors love the quick action during the course of just a single game. One of the most powerful concepts to profiting from all this is a rarely discussed betting strategy, called derivative betting. Derivatives are certain betting opportunities that are derived from other ones. The most common example is first half odds; these are derived from full game odds.
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The first thing to a successful derivative betting is an understanding of how the overall betting market works. For NFL, oddsmakers handicap games well in advanced and sometime between Sunday late afternoon and Tuesday early AM point spreads, totals and money lines are posted for all games.
The initial bets placed on them are taken for the purpose of sharpening the line. As time passes the sportsbooks keep moving their lines and increasing limits. Their goal is to find a point spread and price for both teams that large smart money has no interest in betting. Once achieved, the odds are efficient enough that sportsbooks are willing to accept large bets. Around this time they begin opening derivatives for betting such as half times, quarters, team totals, and various props.
The easiest NFL derivative to handicap is the proposition which team will score first. The best method to handicap this prop is to look to sharp bookmakers and see what their first half lines are. Sharp betting sites are ones that open lines first, allow for the largest betting limits, and/or operate on reduced juice.
How to use this information for wagering on football games is simple. Let’s say you’re monitoring point spread and all of all of a sudden the lines at every betting site are moving in a hurry for a given game. There are many reasons this could be the case, perhaps a key player is out, or maybe the sharp bettors were waiting until later in the week to place their bets. Whatever the specifics might be, there is always going to be a valid reason for the line movement.
If you find yourself too late, the which team to score first prop is a strongly correlated derivative you can turn to. So for example if you watch the Patriots go from -7 to -7.5 to -8.5 in a hurry and are unable to bet -7. Here take a look at props using the handicapping methods I just gave you, you’ll very often find Patriots to score first is +EV, because the line is still based on the old line of Patriots -7 for the game.
This should be enough to help you make extra profits this season with NFL derivatives. Our “Live Betting” user console is designed to be very easy and intuitive. With one click to open a game, and with only a few more, select and create a wager. Everything is right at your fingertips, right where you need it to be! Sign up now at Heritagesports.eu