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twin peeks

Twin peaks at Goodwood is a Value Bet

The quality contest is the Group One Qatar Sussex Stakes over a mile at 3.10, when the three Guineas winners, Galileo Gold, The Gurkha and Awtaad do battle again.

The older horses are going to find it tough giving this particular Classic generation 8lb, and for that reason it’s a no bet race – although you might consider Kodi Bear at 25s.

His best ever performance came at Goodwood, any rain won’t inconvenience him and first-time cheek pieces could well inspire him to rediscover his verve; his half-sister, Princess Cammie, and his sire, Kodiac, both won in first-time headgear.

It’s hard to envisage him giving 8lb and a beating to three Guineas winners, especially considering this season’s form, so it may pay to wait until the Victoria Racing Club Molecomb Stakes at 3.45 before striking a bet on day two.

Charlie Hills won this race two years ago with Cotai Glory and he could well land the prize for the second time in three years with Chepstow winner Nayyar, who ran on strongly to post an impressive debut performance with subsequent Sandown winner Night Law back in fourth.

The Last Lion and Global Applause set a pretty good standard, but both have been beaten on more than one occasion and there’s more than a bit of hope that an unexposed horse like Nayyar can bridge the gap.

He’s a half-brother to Prince of Light, a horse that won twice at Goodwood and was rated 109 in his pomp, while he’s also a relative of Mandobi who was second in a listed contest at this meeting on his only visit to the track.

James McDonald teamed up with Hills on Tuesday with Dutch Connection, saying afterwards the Lambourn handler is ‘an absolute brother of mine’, and as the New Zealander heads home on Saturday this would be another sweet victory for the duo.

Later on the card, Wholesome looks a decent bet at 12s (general) in the EBF Breeders’ Series Veuve Clicquot Fillies’ Handicap at 4.55.

Karl Burke’s Lemon Drop Kid filly looked a good prospect when winning a Carlisle maiden in May and she’s been lightly-raced in a couple of handicaps since.

She was a bit keen when stepped up in trip to 10 furlongs at Chester last time, but she saw the extra distance out well and if she settles better on Wednesday she’s going close off this mark.

There’s not an awful lot of pace in the race but you would expect Rioca to get across from her wide draw and try to dominate, so Wholesome could get a nice position just in behind her from her low draw.

Tactical speed and a prominent position is usually key around here, so her pace and ability to travel could be a real weapon in this contest and 12/1 is fair. Intimation certainly looks like a favourite that is worth taking on.

The same sentiment applies in the closing NatWest Stakes Handicap, as Afjaan might not be as short as 7/2 in a race as competitive as this.

He ran okay behind subsequent listed winner Red Box on Lingfield’s turf last time, but 7/2 is very short on the back of that effort.

If he does fail to justify his cramped odds the one that could take advantage is Dean Ivory’s Twin Sails who is worth backing at 11s (general).

Ivory is in decent form at present, and this horse was an eyecatching second at York last time when runner-up over seven furlongs in first-time blinkers.

He was keen out wide that day and got no cover, but he just failed to reel in a smart Mark Johnston-trained filly in Dawaa and the fourth, Ice Age, has come out and won since.

Up just 2lb for that narrow defeat, he’s handicapped to win a race and from a nice low draw in three, Wednesday could be the day it all drops right for him if the headgear has the desired effect again.

 

Categories: Racebook