Week 14 started on Thanksgiving with four games, brings more action for Friday and Saturday. As you place your best consider that one of the biggest mistakes that casual sports bettors make is trying to handicap every different type of sport the same way. The reality is that each sport has its own tendencies and therefore every sport should be approached differently with football, basketball, baseball and hockey each getting its own type of approach. College football handicapping can be broken down in to three different categories with the three basic types of football handicapping being statistical, situational and trend-based. Here is a look at the best approach to handicapping college football games.
The smart handicapper uses a variety of different statistics in order to make their selections every week and that is particularly true when it comes to college football. For example, a team like Air Force or Georgia Tech will run a run-oriented offense that will put a strong emphasis on moving the football on the ground and that will lead to outstanding rushing numbers. Therefore, a favorable matchup would be one against an opponent that struggles to stop the run while a negative matchup would be one against an opponent that does an excellent job defending the run. It’s important to understand the disparity between the best and worst teams from a statistical perspective as well. While the biggest difference between the very best and worst teams in the NFL is generally around 14-17 points, a major college football power can beat a Division 1-AA team by 60 points and it wouldn’t surprise anybody.
Situational handicapping can also be more pronounced in college football than in the NFL. This includes potential letdowns, trap games, revenge games and home advantage. Young men between the ages of 18 and 22 are clearly more susceptible to these major situational factors than NFL teams so it’s important to take that in to account. One of the bigger mistakes that handicappers make is downplaying the significance of these situations at the college level even though the numbers clearly show they can have an impact on the outcomes.
The final handicapping factor to consider is trend based, although this one could carry a little less weight than the other two at the college football level. It’s hard to track trends from year to year since a number of key players graduate every single year and with the disparity in teams it’s hard to track how important every trend is from week to week. However, it’s still worth tracking trends for particular head coaches, especially when it comes to the top programs. Trend-based handicapping isn’t as important in college football as it is in the NFL but it isn’t irrelevant either.
Statistical handicapping and situational handicapping are both extremely relevant when it comes to college football but it’s also worth keeping an eye out for trends when it comes to coaches. There is no right or wrong way to bet on college football but using key statistics and paying close attention to situations can really give sports handicappers an edge when it comes to betting on football at the college level. Sign up at Heritagesports.eu