March Madness = March Millions

It is that time of the year when the hottest sports action is centered in campus, the 2017 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament is scheduled to begin on March 14, 2017, and will conclude with the national championship game on April 3. The NCAA awards 32 automatic bids to the tournament, with the other 36 bids being awarded by the selection committee. Regardless of what happens during the upcoming conference tournaments, several teams have already firmly clinched a postseason berth.

Online sportsbooks have already posted odds on which teams will reach the Final Four, with “yes” or “no” options for eleven of the nation’s best teams. The table below displays the current odds, along with the latest probabilities from bracket simulators.

SCHOOL                      YES     NO       BRACKET SIM

North Carolina           +200   -260    36.1%

Kansas                        +230   -310    19.8%

UCLA                           +230   -310    11.9%

Villanova                    +240   -320    22.5%

Duke                           +250   -330    12.2%

Gonzaga                      +300   -400    49.7%

Oregon                       +315   -425    13.0%

Kentucky                    +350   -500    29.6%

Louisville                    +415   -625    20.4%

Arizona                       +450   -700    8.9%

Baylor                         +900   -1800 18.5%

By using this bracket simulator predictions to determine which schools are offering value in the futures market can be made. By converting each school’s future price into an implied probability, you are able to identify several schools with a positive expected value. The bracket simulator also offers probabilities to reach the Final Four, the purpose is to determine which schools were offering the best value.

There’s are several schools with limited value to reach the Final Four (Kentucky +350, Louisville +415 and North Carolina +200) and several with limited value to be eliminated earlier in the tournament (Arizona -700, Kansas -310, Oregon -425 and Villanova -320) but the edge is so small that it’s not actionable. That said, there are four teams with significant value:

Gonzaga (+300) to reach Final Four

UCLA (-310) to miss Final Four

Duke (-330) to miss Final Four

Baylor (+900) to reach Final Four

The NCAA tournament bracket won’t be released until Selection Sunday on March 12, so Joe Lunardi’s weekly Bracketology predictions has been used to determine the tournament field. The one problem with this strategy is that some teams have much easier competition. Although Oregon and Kentucky are both two-seeds, our numbers believe that Kentucky is the far superior team. That gives Gonzaga a much easier path to the Final Four than Kansas.

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At Heritagesports things get even better with the Free Bracket contest. If any one participant in the Heritage Sports March Millions Contest scores the maximum score of 3,381 points, that person will win $5,000,000.

If none of the contestants of the Heritage Sports March Millions Contest score the maximum 3,381 points, Heritage Sports will give out 500 prizes to the top scorers. Prizes are listed in this table

All entries for the Heritage Sports March Millions Contest are final upon submission. NO CHANGES ARE ALLOWED.

Participants will be able to review their current contest standings at any time simply by clicking on our Leader Board feature. Sign up now at Heritagesports.eu