Namajunas vs cortez preview

The Ultimate Fighting Championship on Saturday returns to Denver for the first time in nearly six years, and UFC on ESPN 59 follows what has become a familiar refrain. A lot of last-minute changes were required, but the company regrouped enough to put together a solid show at Ball Arena.

As far as the main card goes, the central point of intrigue remains the headliner. Rose Namajunas was initially slated to serve as the next big test for top flyweight prospect Maycee Barber, but she instead faces short-notice replacement Tracy Cortez in a fight that still represents an interesting step up in competition for one of the flyweight division’s top rising talents.

From there, the featured bouts are mostly matched for action, even if the co-main event between Santiago Ponzinibbio and Muslim Salikhov is probably more about what they have accomplished than what they can currently provide. Drew Dober and Jean Silva seem guaranteed to bring violence; hard-charging welterweight Gabriel Bonfim should make something happen; and a featherweight tilt pitting Julian Erosa against Christian Rodriguez figures to provide a torrid pace.

With the odds Namajunas (-218), Cortez (+180) with still somehow just 32 years old, Namajunas has enough time to make a dedicated run at flyweight, even if the former strawweight champion feels quite directionless at the moment.

Namajunas was tabbed for stardom almost immediately upon her professional debut, scoring a flying armbar in her second fight that made her one of the top prospects to watch on the women’s side. When the UFC decided to launch its strawweight division through “The Ultimate Fighter” a year later, Namajunas was an obvious choice for the cast and wound up being a standout of the season, both in terms of being an engaging personality and winning her way to a championship fight versus Carla Esparza.

That fight ended in a one-sided win for Esparza, the season’s favorite all along, as she outwrestled Namajunas without much of an issue. However, “Thug Rose” still recovered to become one of the division’s biggest fan favorites and most engaging personalities. Namajunas is about the clearest case there is for fighting being a mental sport, and she has worn her struggles on her sleeve at times inside the cage.

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A decision loss to Karolina Kowalkiewicz in 2016 that would have set her up for a title shot with a victory was a stark example of the narrative that Namajunas couldn’t stand up to a bullying fighter. Namajunas did eventually work her way back to a title shot versus Joanna Jedrzejczyk in 2017.

Her issues became the center of the buildup, with Jedrzejczyk essentially promising that she would mentally break her challenger.

That made it all the more cathartic when Namajunas put together the best performance of her career to win the title in three minutes, then defended it in a hard-fought rematch that showed she wouldn’t crumble under adversity.

Unfortunately, the narrative from there wasn’t quite so clean, starting with Namajunas’ next title defense versus Jessica Andrade. Namajunas looked the sharpest she ever has while picking Andrade apart in the first round, but the fight ended in the second when the Brazilian picked her up in a clinch exchange and slammed her on her head, winning the strawweight title and kicking off the first of many teases that “Thug Rose” might retire.

Namajunas did eventually regroup after a long layoff, recapturing the title against Weili Zhang before defending it in another hard-fought struggle, but whatever momentum was reclaimed by that run went away just as quickly with her infamous rematch against Esparza.

The less that is said about the fight the better, but Namajunas was apparently so concerned with the takedown threat that Esparza offered in their first fight that she focused almost exclusively on defense, resulting in five rounds of inaction. The judges sided with Esparza, who also didn’t accomplish much of anything. So came another retirement tease and another long layoff, with Namajunas’ eventual return in September kicking off a run at flyweight that has been a mixed bag.

A loss to Manon Fiorot was mostly written off thanks to Namajunas breaking her finger almost immediately, and her bounce-back victory over Amanda Ribas was a workmanlike performance in which she looked steady but also didn’t pop to the level that she has in the past.

The initial pairing here against Barber didn’t look like a particularly advantageous matchup for Namajunas, but Cortez steps in for what should be a more interesting fight.

This marks a long-overdue big spot for Cortez, who has overachieved greatly since signing with the UFC in 2019 and gotten surprisingly little in terms of a promotional push for her troubles. Cortez was essentially a lock to get a contract with a win on Dana White’s Contender Series back in 2019. Beyond her marketable look, her inspirational life story of fighting in her brother’s memory made it almost impossible to turn her away.

Cortez got the victory and the contract, but her victory didn’t exactly seem to set her up for success, as it backed up the scouting report that she was a one-dimensional wrestler dealing with some thin margins. Cortez has, in fact, turned out to be a pure wrestler for most of her UFC career, but she has proven to be good enough at her core skills that everything else hasn’t mattered.

She impressively held her own for two fights at bantamweight before dropping down to 125 pounds, where she has continued to successfully embrace the grind while proving nearly impossible to outgrapple. A September win over Jasmine Jasudavicius felt like a bit of a coming-out party for Cortez as a potential top contender, as she mostly eschewed her wrestling to show off a surprisingly impressive striking game, so the main question left was when exactly the UFC would pull the trigger on her promotionally.

Even though she was now firmly in the UFC’s flyweight rankings, all but one of her fights were buried on the prelims. Initially, it seemed like she was set to tread water once again with a matchup versus Miranda Maverick next week that once was once again set to take place on the prelims, but Barber’s injury opened the door for Cortez to finally get the biggest shot of her career.

It’s a well-matched fight with some obvious concerns for both fighters. Cortez is getting the more massive jump up in level of competition, but it’s still unclear exactly how well Namajunas holds up physically as a flyweight. Cortez’s bruising style figures to ask that question both early and often.

Even with a full training camp, this fight might be a call for Namajunas. She hasn’t quite had the snap on the feet that she had at 115 pounds, but she’s still capable of setting a range and sniping away at Cortez at a level that most adversaries haven’t been able to provide.

Add in that this is a tricky spot for Cortez to take a fight on late notice—it’s her first five-round fight, takes place at elevation and poses a vastly different style matchup from facing a stocky wrestler such as Maverick—and the bet is that the former strawweight champ can eventually coast this out. The pick is Namajunas via decision.

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