For the seventh year in a row, LeBron James will be appearing in the NBA Finals, The Cleveland Cavaliers and Golden State Warriors face each other again in the finals. As masses drive their cash towards the NBA there are certain factors to be considered. No matter how much do they practice, the NBA players are still human, they tend to get tired and when they do get tired, their performance takes a dip. Spikes and dips are very important in sports betting but are not always easy to recognize before it’s too late.
On our business, we often have to anticipate how a certain team will respond to various factors that might affect an outcome of a game or a string of games. The best way to do so is to analyze similar scenarios looking both as the general statistical averages and the specific situations, the micro models.
We’ve witnessed an increase in players’ sports longevity over the course of the last decade. It’s a result of a higher general awareness on how to protect the athlete’s body with proper diet, training and playing management, tissue recovery and sleep programs and other various ways. As the sports medicine experts have joined franchises, it also raised players own awareness and they are now much smarter in what they do and eat in their personal time during the season and also during the summer break.
The pressure increased on the NBA league as well, mostly considering packed up portions of team schedules where teams had to play many back-to-back sets or the dreaded 5-games-in-7-nights. The league listened and stretched the season in each of the previous three seasons. The regular season starts earlier, there’s a full week of rest during the All-Star break and the average number of back-to-back sets is downed by about 20 percent.
NBA teams even fly on private luxury jets of their owner, however, the players fly so frequently that it’s a big stress on their bodies. They change time zones, altitudes and climates. They also don’t land in arena. Some of the airports are very distant to where the players actually stay and play. NBA teams go on lengthy road trips that make them travel thousands of miles in few days. It can clearly affect players’ performance.
Once you progress through enough of the games with the correct thinking, you’ll do it automatically. Say your numbers say that you should ask for a +6.5 -105 target on a team and you spot that they are a veteran team that traveled quite a bit this week. Simply adjust your asking price to +6.5 +100.
On the other side, don’t give your bet as much value if the other side might have tired players. If you would ask for -4.5 -105 on the jolly in the same hypothetical game, strongly consider moving for just a point or two, not more.
Finally, if your bookie offers live betting on the game you are looking to bet on, try making use of it. If the fatigue is the deciding factor, players will only get more tired as the game progresses, so it makes perfect sense to put your wager during the 2nd or 3rd quarter if a good opportunity arises. Sign up at Heritagesports