Does the image of New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady celebrating a touchdown against the Atlanta Falcons during Super Bowl 51 in Houston, seem a recent one? Well it’s only been a few months yet, football season is still more than three months away, but lines already are available for wagering on all but a handful of the 2017 NFL regular season’s 256 games.
Division, conference and Super Bowl LII odds also are on the board at Las Vegas sports books, along with team season win totals, which have generated plenty of action.
Vegas sportsbooks report that most action has been on unders for the Browns (4½, -130), Chargers (7½, -135) and Jets (5, -140), and overs on the Raiders (9½, -140), Dolphins (7, -150), Buccaneers (8, -110), Colts (8½, -110) and Vikings (8½, even).
The public will always take the perceived worst teams and bet them under. It worked for them last year.
The Browns finished 1-15 last season, but lost two games in overtime and three others by five points or fewer. They added three first-round picks, including defensive end Myles Garrett (Texas A&M) with the No. 1 overall selection, and quarterback DeShone Kizer (Notre Dame) in the second round.
Miami went 10-6 last season with a minus-17 point differential while the Chargers finished 5-11 with a minus-13 point differential.
That happens in a small sample. Looking at the point differential, you’d say the team that went 10-6 was very lucky and the team that went 5-11 was very unlucky.
The Jets are the definition of why teams go up and down. Now they go back to a last-place schedule. The schedule is huge. It’s so underrated as far as who you play.
On the flip side, Vegas experts said brutal schedules will make it difficult for the Raiders and Cowboys (Over 9½, -130) to reach double-digit wins for the second consecutive season.
The Raiders are good but they’re definitely playing one of the hardest schedules in the NFL. There’s not a lot of easy games. They play the NFC East and all the trips to the East Coast will be very difficult.
The Raiders also had all those close games last year. One year, you win the close games and the next year you lose them. If they can win 10 given their schedule, that would be a pretty good achievement. The same can be said of the Cowboys.
Dallas benefited from close wins and a last-place schedule last year. This year, it’s the opposite. They play the first-place schedule. Given their schedule, the Cowboys are definitely a team we look at for regression.
Record win total
The Patriots’ win total of 12½ is not only the highest number on the board, but the highest total we’ve seen in years. New England is a minus-1400 favorite to win the AFC East for the ninth straight season and 15th time in 17 years.
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