Prop Bets = Smart Bets?

As the Olympic Games evolve prop bets concentrate much of the sports betting action. The term is actually a short for proposition, and a proposition bet can be on any outcome at all. Generally props are not directly related to the final outcome of a match.

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Proposition betting has existed for a long time– since back in the 1870’s when bookies would accept wagers from baseball stadiums on the results of each pitch and at bat. Nowadays props are very popular, especially among recreational bettors, and are often viewed as fun wagers rather than a way to make any serious money.

Even though props are often dismissed as luck-based wagers, they can still be handicapped just like most sports bets can be. Football props in particular can be profitable, and you should learn how to use them effectively alongside point spreads, moneylines and totals.

Bettors have the an advantage over sportsbooks because they have the resources to dig deeper. Historically, how has been the performance of one particular player against this team?

Is he in form at the moment? Is he at his 100%? With hundreds of prop bets available every week, you will surely find regular discrepancies if you do your research homework.

One particular discrepancy you will sometimes find involves lines appearing too high. Casual bettors often bet popular players to go “Over” the posted total, and the lines are adjusted accordingly. However, the better bet is to find projections that are way too high and have enough value on the “Under” to overcome the extra juice.

Prop Betting Strategy

It is true that there are certain propositions that are mere chance. For example, will the coin toss be heads or tails? heads -105 / tails -105; this is a proposition that has negative expected value (-EV) no matter which side you choose. To address the critics: the NFL uses a coin that weighs equal on each side and physics behind coin flipping are not enough to overcome the 2.38% advantage. There is one rule in particular that should be considered on prop betting strategy, that is to avoid bets that no matter how much you study them, you can’t win.

The next thing to understand about prop betting is there many ways, whether intentional or not, in which you can be cheated by the bookmaker. One example is a prop bet made on which team will be penalized first? You bet Team A, the first penalty is called on team B which is declined. Note that this team hasn’t been penalized (it was declined). Next penalty is called on Team A. Considering the wording of this prop bet and the fact declined penalties do not appear in official NFL stats this bet should probably win. One simple advise is to avoid props that have any ambiguous wording, or any possibility for multiple interpretations.

Important to understand is that football propositions are the essence of many small stakes football betting professionals. Bookmakers offer props merely as a recruitment and retention tool rather than as a profit generator. Consider that many of the largest betting sites accept millions of dollars in wagers for each game of the NFL season, however only a small percentage is bet on props.

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