Sports Betting Strategies: Teaser

Sports Betting Strategies

Teasers, sometimes referred to as “Wong Teasers, are one the easiest bets to calculate value of, and then find +EV wagering opportunities.

What is a Teaser Bet?

A teaser is a parlay bet that uses modified point spreads.

For example in a “3-team 6-point teasers” using Jets/Colts o43, Patriots -3, and Jags +4 what you end up with is a parlay on Jets/Colts o37, Patriots +3 and Jags +10 as each spread is modified six points.

In football, the most common modification is six points. Example: this week there are three bets you like: Jets -7.5, Raiders +1.5, and Bills +5.5. Rather than betting these straight or in a parlay, you could make a three-team six point teaser bet of Jets -1.5, Raiders +7.5, Bills +11.5. To win the bet, you’ll need all three teams to cover.

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Standard Teaser Odds

Teaser odds vary from site to site. When betting six point football teasers, you want to find 2 teams -110 or better, 3 teams +180 or better, 4 teams +300 or better. Teasers use fixed payouts and therefore it’s difficult for the average sports bettor to decipher the odds on individual teams.

Even if the betting site you use offers reduced juice, such as -105 as opposed to the standard -110, if you pick randomly on straight point spread wagers you’re going to lose over the long run. The expected loss randomly picking at -110 is 4.55% and at -105 2.38%.

There are quite a few teasers that are great blind bets. The first is NFL underdogs +1.5 to +2.5 and NFL favorites -7.5 to -8.5. If you use these in 3-team 6-point teasers at +180 and manage your bankroll well, chances are you won’t lose much over the long run, and might even come out ahead.

Teaser Rules for Pushes

The rules for pushes are generally the same at each site. If a leg in a teaser pushes while any other leg is a loss, the teaser bet is graded a loss. A push and all wins reduce the same as they would in a parlay.

Advanced Teaser Strategy

A teaser bet is a parlay using a modified point spread. In order to analyze teasers strategically, we need to break the bet down to the point where we understand what odds we are paying per leg.

2 team 6 point (-110) teasers. To break even at -110 you need to win 52.38% of your bets. The formula used to calculate this is risk divided by return, where return equals stake plus win. For example, a bettor risks $110 to win $100, the return is $210, so the math here is $110 risk/$210 return=0.5238 which is 52.38%. This is how often “both” legs of a teaser must win for the bet to be break even. We need to ask ourselves “how often must each leg individually win to achieve a 52.38% win rate?” To calculate this, what we need to know is what number times itself equals 0.5238. Using a square root calculator, we find 0.7237 x 0.7237 = 0.5238. This means that each individual leg must win 72.37% of the time on average for the teaser bet to have neutral (break even) expectation. To keep from getting math intensive, I’ll simplify things and tell you to Google search “Moneyline Converter”, plug in 72.37%, and see in American odds format that this equates to a moneyline of -262.

We’ve now deciphered a two team six point teaser at -110. What we have is a two team parlay at -262 per team. The bookmaker sold us six points and charged us 152 cents (from the standard -110) for those points.

This same math can be used on other teasers as well.

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