If you want to guarantee yourself some betting action the MLB is your chance,
With 30 teams playing 162 regular season games, plus the postseason,
You may find the regular season (2,430 games) which can be considered long by some fans and drawn out. However, for sharp sports bettors, more games mean more opportunities to maximize the amount of wins. In Baseball betting there is another peculiarity, as you could only be winning only 40-45% of your wagers and still turn a profit. Lower winning percentages can still be extremely profitable when consistently betting moneyline underdogs.
This is because the odds focus on moneylines instead of a point spread. As an example instead of Los Angeles being 1.5-point favorites (meaning they have to win by two runs to win the bet), they are -180 baseball moneyline favorites. The Padres might be +160 moneyline underdogs. When wagering on basketball and football using point spreads bettors must win 52.4% of their games (assuming a vig of -110) in order to break-even.
For example, if your betting system has a return on investment of 2%, you’ll average a profit of $2 for every $100 bet placed.
Assuming this 2% ROI, it’s reasonable to expect your system to result in 486 MLB bets and 51 NFL bets over the respective seasons of each sport. (We come to this conclusion by taking 20% of each sport’s total regular season games played). Remember, the NFL plays 256 games in a normal regular season compared to the MLB’s 2,430.
Even though the ROI is exactly the same for both sports, the sheer volume of wagering opportunities creates a significant difference in the amount of units this system will win for each sport.
A 2% ROI applied to 486 MLB games would result in a profit of +9.72 units, while that same ROI applied to 51 NFL games only earns a profit of +1.02 units.
An MLB bettor wagering $500 on each play ($500 x 9.72 units) would finish the season with a profit of $4,860. Conversely, a $500 NFL bettor earning the exact same ROI would have finished the season with a profit of $510 ($500 x 1.02 units).
The only difference between these two bettors is that a 2% edge in baseball offers exponentially more wagering opportunities than football and, in turn, a profit that’s more than 9.5 times greater for the baseball bettor.
Let’s take a look at the numbers of last five years (regular season) and compare the results of underdogs and favorites.
Favorites: 7,430-5,543 (57.3%) Avg. Line = -140.7
Underdogs: 4,713-6,600 (41.7%) Avg. Line = 133.9
With the 57.3% winning percentage you would need to get an average of -134 or better odds on each game just to break even. On the other hand if you won only 41.7% of your games you would only need average odds of +141 or more to show a profit on underdogs.
You can see if you focus on underdogs you are ahead of the game, but you can’t bet them blindly because you will still end up behind. If you haven’t already, drive your attention to underdogs, use this profitable baseball betting strategy and have a profitable season. Sign up at: http://heritagesports.eu
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